by Rustam Taghizade
New paradigms in the ongoing war in the Middle East.
The war between Israel and Hamas has been going on since 7 October 2023. During this war, the political tension between Israel and Iran has reached its peak. Israel mobilised all its forces in the war against Hamas, Iran’s proxy force. Israel used new military tactics to clear Gaza of terrorists. When we analyse this war, we see that Israel actually implemented the right policy by signing the Abraham Accords agreement in 2020. The Arab countries of the Gulf have at least maintained their neutrality in this war. Let’s look at the reasons for the tension between Iran and Israel. First of all, I can say that the assassination of Iranian generals and scientists working in the nuclear field has led to an increase in these tensions. It should be noted that SEPAH has a strong position inside Iran. SEPAH has the ability to influence the Supreme Leader. The tension in April and Iran’s attack on Israel with drones and missiles put Israel in a difficult position. However, Britain and the United States sided with Israel in this attack. After the Israeli attack on the consulate in Damascus, Iran was forced to organise an operation against Israel in order to regain its lost political influence. Iran’s first direct attack on Israel marked the beginning of a new phase in the strategic rivalry between the two countries. For years, Iran has preferred to act against Israel through a network of regional partners and proxies in order to maintain deniability and minimise the risk of political or military consequences for its actions. In this offensive, Iran has relied on Russia and China. These countries are Iran’s main geopolitical backers. Those who predict a high probability of war between Iran and Israel are already saying that it would be World War III. But Iran does not want an open war with Israel. Iran’s strategy is a shadow war. Iran’s main idea is to keep Israel under constant tension through proxy forces. Iran is also a state that prevents Israel from gaining power in the Middle East through Hamas and Hezbollah. In fact, at this point, Israel wants to defeat Hamas and take full control of the Gaza Strip. The Rafah Gate is a key site in this war. The USA, which did not want Israel to start a war against Iran, negotiated with Israel. The position of the Anglo-Saxon alliance in the Middle East is strong. While the war between Ukraine and Russia continues, Russia wants to spread the war in the Middle East to other countries in the region. This is not in the interests of the US. In any case, the war in the Middle East will greatly affect other countries in the region. At the same time, Israel is attacking Hezbollah bases in Lebanon. This tactic will continue. I think Israel should adopt a flexible policy in this war. Israel has great political and military potential to win the fight against Hamas.