by Scott Morgan
There has been some interest in recent moves by Hungary to solidify a defense relationship with the Central African Country of Chad. There are several interesting questions regarding why this is happening.
Let’s start with some simple data points. The basic question to be asked first is whether or not if there are any historical ties between these two nations? The answer according to one report is a resounding no. Nor are there any current Hungarian Economic holdings in either Chad or the Sahel neither is there any substantial Hungarian diaspora in the region. Why then would be the other motivating factors that would compel Budapest to take such action?
There are a couple of plausible answers to this. The first possible answer is to allow Hungary access to a region where rare earth minerals are rapidly becoming strategic interests to various countries such as the UAE, Iran, Turkey and even Israel. The planned footprint of 200 troops seems relatively small for a large scale operation to secure access to economic assets. It is however an adequate size to provide a training program for either counter terrorism or counter insurgency.
The military presence is leading to rampant speculation. Is Prime Minister Orban taking this path to emulate his political ally Vladimir Putin the President of the Russian Federation? Indeed this is a tactic that has been used by Russian actors in other countries such as Libya, Mali and the Central African Republic, the timeline suggests that it may be way too early to determine whether or not this tactic will actually bear success for Budapest, it shows that the tactics being used currently by Moscow are apparently working and others are seeking to test them out to see if they can garner similar success.
Another possibility should be considered. This could be seen as a way to create some leverage with relations with Brussels. One of the major sources of friction between Hungary and EU has been the migration policy. The deployment of Hungarian Troops to Chad gives Mr. Orban an opportunity to state that his strategy on migration is superior to the efforts from Brussels.
There is also a second path to show a difference in strategy from Brussels. There have been three security missions in Africa where the EU were forced to withdraw. These missions initially were to buttress Sahelian states that were suffering insurgencies for a decade. Beginning in 2022 a series of Military Coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso replaced weak civilian governments with Military Juntas. The juntas which promised security which was not able to have been delivered by Civilian Governments have turned away from Western partners and have sought assistance from Russia. It was expected that Chad would make a similar move after the Presidential Elections earlier in 2024. However it has been announced that the presence of American troops would return to the country after being asked to leave five months earlier at the request of the Chadian Government. The newly minted government probably finds itself in a position where it needs all of the assistance it can garner from whatever corner it can find it.
Despite the presence of Russians in the Sahel the situation in the region has not improved. A recent attack against Chadian Troops on October 27th by the militant group Boko Haram near the border with Nigeria is reported to have killed at least 40 Troops. The insurgency by Boko Haram is not the only threat that Chad faces at this time.
The country has instability to its north in Libya, A civil war raging to the east in Sudan has forced a million people to flee from Darfur into its neighbor. Rumors of planned patrols with the Army of the Central African Republic may also benefit from the Hungarian presence as well.
The Hungarians sense an opportunity here. They can present their case of a mid-level power who has interests in the latest scramble for African resources. They can emulate Moscow while showing its displeasure with Brussels without a direct confrontation. They have picked a partner well in this case.
Check out the author’s Substack at confusedeagledc.substack.com and consider the new options.