by Rustam Taghizade.
1. The context of ethnic tensions in Iran: Iran is a multinational state, where Persians constitute approximately 60% of the population, alongside significant minority groups, including Azerbaijani Turks (16-24%), Kurds (7-10%), Baloch, Arabs and others. These ethnic minorities have historically faced systematic discrimination, including restrictions on cultural and linguistic rights, economic marginalization and weak political representation. The key grievances of these ethnic groups include:
Azerbaijani Turks: They are concentrated in the northwestern part of Iran (in the Azerbaijani provinces) and have protested against bans on the teaching of Azerbaijani Turkish, cultural oppression and environmental neglect (e.g. the draining of Lake Urmia).
Should such protests materialize in the future, it is probable that they will be rooted in these unresolved grievances, further compounded by Iran’s deteriorating economic situation (due to US sanctions and domestic mismanagement) and the regime’s authoritarian repression of opposition.
2. Specific triggers for reported unrest may include:
Cultural repression: Recent bans on education in Azerbaijani Turkish or cultural symbols could reignite demands for autonomy.
Economic hardship: Inflation, unemployment, and corruption have been observed to disproportionately affect minority regions, thereby fueling resentment against the central government.
3. Risk of ethnic clashes: The risk of ethnic clashes in Iran is a serious concern for the following reasons: Regime Tactics: The Iranian government has historically exploited ethnic divisions to maintain control and has used security forces to suppress dissent while blaming separatists or foreign actors.
Proxy Conflicts: Kurdish opposition groups (e.g., PJAK) and Azerbaijani nationalist movements (e.g., the South Azerbaijan National Awakening Movement) operate covertly, occasionally clashing with Iranian forces. The regime may utilise the frame of “separatist” protests to justify the use of violence.
Inter-ethnic tensions: While solidarity between the Kurds and the Azerbaijani Turks is a possibility, historical tensions (e.g., land disputes) can be manipulated by the state to divide the opposition.
4. USA factor: Potential US involvement is a recurring theme in Iranian state narratives to allege US interference; however, there is often circumstantial evidence of direct involvement in ethnic protests. Nevertheless, a number of factors must be considered.
US Policy towards Iran: The US has overtly supported regime change in Iran, providing funding for Persian-language media outlets such as Radio Farda and actively supporting protests, notably during the Mahsa Amini uprising in 2022-2023. Furthermore, sanctions have been a contributing factor in the escalation of economic hardship.
Ethnic Opposition Groups: While some Azerbaijani and Kurdish diaspora organisations, such as the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, have been reported to receive covert US support, there is currently no evidence to suggest any direct coordination with protesters inside Iran.
Regime Propaganda: The Tehran regime has a consistent pattern of attributing the domestic unrest to external actors, namely the US, Israel, or Saudi Arabia, in order to legitimise popular discontent. This narrative serves to unify nationalist groups and justify repression.
Conclusion on the Role of the United States: While there is evidence to suggest that the United States has benefited from the instability in Iran, there is little evidence to suggest that there has been any direct organisation of ethnic protests. While U.S. sanctions and rhetoric may indirectly strengthen the opposition, the majority of these grievances are domestic in nature.
5. Regional and geopolitical implications : Turkey and Azerbaijan: Both countries have cultural ties to Iranian Azerbaijani Turks. Following its victory in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, the Azerbaijani government has increasingly criticised Iran’s treatment of Azerbaijani minorities, raising fears of cross-border interference.
Kurdish dynamics: Kurdish unrest in Iran may align with broader Kurdish movements in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, potentially leading to regional destabilisation.
Russia and China: Both of Iran’s allies are likely to oppose foreign intervention, portraying the protests as Western-backed “color revolutions.”
6. Probable Outcome In the short term: The regime is expected to respond to the protests with a violent crackdown, deploying the IRGC and Basij militias. Internet shutdowns, arrests, and censorship will ensue.
Long-term: Continued ethnic unrest has the potential to weaken the central government, especially in conjunction with broader anti-regime movements. However, Iran’s security state is robust, and ethnic divisions limit a unified opposition.
International Response: Western powers may issue condemnation of the crackdown; however, they lack the capacity to exercise meaningful influence due to the existing sanctions in place. It is likely that regional actors such as Turkey and Azerbaijan will adopt a cautious approach to prevent the escalation of the situation.
a) US and Israel. Strategically weakening the regime: The US and Israel have historically sought to subvert the theocratic regime in Iran, perceiving it as a regional adversary. Intelligence agencies (e.g. CIA, Mossad) may exploit ethnic grievances to destabilize Tehran, especially if the protests threaten the stability of the regime.
Support for opposition groups: Covert funding, propaganda, or cyber tools may be channeled to Azerbaijani or Kurdish activists to sustain the opposition. Historically, the US has provided support to Kurdish groups in Iraq and Syria, for instance the Peshmerga, and there is a growing concern about the potential application of similar tactics in Iran.
Conclusion: The protests are said to reflect deep-rooted ethnic and economic grievances in Iran that have been exacerbated by the regime’s oppressive policies. While the US and other foreign actors may seek to exploit such unrest, it is important to recognise that the underlying causes are internal. While ethnic clashes remain a potential threat, the regime’s ability to suppress dissent and portray protests as foreign-backed is of paramount importance. For sustainable stability, it is imperative that Iran confronts systemic discrimination and economic inequality; however, the prevailing authoritarian system hinders the implementation of reforms.