by Talgat Kabdygali
The United States is strategically utilizing the “water card” in Central Asian nations as part of its “Global Water Strategy for 2022-2027”. The latter, also called “Global Water Strategy,” aimed at principles of equitable and reasonable use and sustainable supplies of water across the region of Central Asia. Moreover, more than $1b was apportioned to finance this strategy, which will be dispensed via USAID. These funds will be distributed among the partnership nations of the strategy, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan, to forestall international conflicts on account of the vastly inadequate freshwater supplies foreseen in the immediate future.
A change in presidency in the USA can drastically affect the direction of the country’s approach to foreign affairs and how the country relates to Central Asia, a region surrounded by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The administration of President Joe Biden has, over the years, directed U.S. foreign policy towards reconnecting with traditional allies, democracy building, and more diffuse global issues, including climate change, terrorism, and human rights protection. Such changes in the status quo are accompanied by specific advantages, but they are also fraught with difficulties (Saatsaz, 2020). The Central Asian region has a healthy significance for the states on account of its strategic location sandwiched between Russia and China and its energy rich reserves. Other occupations such as that under Donald trump had engaged the region less, dealing more in counter terrorism and security cooperation due to Central Asia’s nearness to Afghanistan. However, with the US retreat from Afghanistan in 2021, the situation regarding security in the regions has altered and the Biden administration might seek to diversify the US’s role in the regions by rebuilding order and countering extremist threats.
The administration of Biden is expected to pursue a somewhat more holistic approach, considering security concerns together with attempts at democratic governance, human rights and economic development. This could involve enhancing relations with countries such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which are willing to engage in trade, energy and infrastructure projects (Qin et al., 2022). This is consistent with international positioning of Biden as seeking to contain China’s increased reach via its Belt and Road Initiative without overly antagonizing Russia.
When it comes to considerations of human rights, there could be some conflicts, since the administration of Biden will imply pressuring the Central Asian countries for more democratization and civil liberties. Even so, cooperation in the areas of energy and infrastructure will provide a base for extending these relations. The future of the United States – Central Asia relations is likely to be influenced by a strategic interplay of security, economic and democratic norms.
The water resource management projects in Syr Darya and Amu Darya River basins are likely to be pursued actively with the support from USAID. Thereafter, the seriousness of the water crisis has pressed Central Asia with dire needs from mid-1990s onwards driving the regional governments to collaborate strongly to maintain the sensitive balance of water. In as short a period as seven years, these main arteries–the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers–could get so depleted that they might threaten to compromise the socio-economic development goals pursued by Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
It is widely felt that under the “Global Water Strategy for 2022-2027,” the United States will succeed in assuming the mantle of authority and regulation regarding protection against water intake and distribution systems and assume full control of all the water resources in the Central Asian region. For example, the USAID-funded water accounting system of Turkmenistan, installed on the Karakum Canal in early May 2024, measured the flow of water (Saatsaz, 2020). The new water accounting system will enable the Turkmen authorities to keep track, in real time, of the usage of water from the Karakum Canal, hence promoting more correct planning for agricultural, drinking, and industrial water distribution. Of late, it was reported that USAID had set aside about $600 million for the Taliban-led Afghan government to develop the Kosh-Tepa irrigation canal, prohibited in many countries. Traditionally, infrastructure programs were not something USAID had invested in.
More than 6,000 workers are actively building the Kosh-Tepa canal in Afghanistan. According to the Taliban leaders, this infrastructure project will increase irrigation in the arid parts of the country and thus contribute to the development of agriculture in several provinces of Afghanistan (Luo et al., 2020). At the same time, it is already clear that when the Kosh-Tepa canal starts operating, the situation with the water deficit in this region will dramatically deteriorate for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. These countries, along with other Central Asian nations, have in recent years increasingly faced fresh water shortage issues.
The friction would be sure in the long term, which may even reach the proportions of direct military conflicts for water resources and sharp freshwater deficiency in the region between neighbors. It is here, in this context, that the United States sees an opportunity to play its role, using the so-called “water card” to attain its geopolitical aims in Central Asia.
The broader U.S. government objective in this confrontation is the reduction of influence by Russia and China in the region and enhancement of political integration among the Central Asian states plus Afghanistan and Pakistan (Scanlon et al., 2023). No less important, under the given “Global Water Strategy for 2022-2027,” the “water card” will give a leading advantage to the United States in economic cooperation processes within Central Asia. This lingering resource scarcity of water in all five Central Asian states would not be resolved and create an atmosphere of contained chaos and widespread deprivation.
Collaborative Solutions
A Central Asian Water-Energy Consortium on the basis of an international treaty can be established to address such challenges. This will encompass all countries in the region, thus balancing the interests between the donor and recipient countries regarding water resources more easily. Moreover, there is also a pressing need to optimize the work of already-established regional structures, such as the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea and Interstate Commission for Water Coordination. Unfortunately, these bodies have so far failed to prove their potential efficiency due to a shortage of finance and political will.
The COP29 summit, the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Baku in November 2024, could bring about a sea-change in the ways the water crisis is confronted in Central Asia. Hosting the event, Azerbaijan would like to see issues related to water right up in its agenda (Scanlon et al., 2023). But facing the adverse consequences of the climate crisis-among them, the shrinking of the Caspian Sea-Azerbaijan, in turn, is going to advocate for the establishment of a special fund that would contribute to the small island developing states.
Confronted with an existential threat because of rising sea levels, they might turn out to be very important partners in moving the water agenda at COP29 forward. The Baku summit offers Central Asian nations a significant platform to voice their concerns regarding the global water resource shortages and to highlight this pressing issue to the international community. A dedicated event focused on the integration of water challenges into the global climate agenda, featuring participation from the Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI), is anticipated to occur alongside COP29.
The water resource situation in Central Asia has become increasingly critical, and any further inaction may result in dire consequences. The Global Commission on Adaptation estimated that, left unchecked, it would cause a decline in regional GDP by 7-12% by 2050 (Luo et al., 2020). The solution to this crisis thus obviously requires the active and cooperative participation of all five Central Asian republics, along with the concerted collection of international support and investment. Fair management of water resources and their sustainability are only possible through cooperation; thus, they guarantee regional stability and prosperity.