by Rustam Taghizade
The ongoing political situation in the Middle East is currently entering a more tense phase. Iran, a garrison state, aspires to leverage its regional influence to launch further attacks against Israel through proxy forces, while simultaneously maintaining a state of conflict with the Jewish state. It is the deployment of proxy forces by Iran that effectively determines the country’s foreign political course of action, thereby demonstrating that it is a state that is founded upon a robust religious ideology. One might be justified in characterizing Iran as a modern empire. Such a multinational state may prove attractive to the United States and Israel as a means of facilitating internal dismemberment. It should be noted that this process is not straightforward. It seems reasonable to posit that the Anglo-Saxon alliance, which exercises considerable influence in the Middle East, will once again offer support to the State of Israel in this instance.
Nevertheless, there are forces within the United States that are opposed to this. Furthermore, the political processes that have been occurring in recent days have seen Iran receive support from Russia and China. Russia is one of the principal countries that provides political and military support to Hamas and Hezbollah. Russia has a greater history of employing proxy forces. The attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 indicated that political stability in the Middle East would be unlikely. The topic of the corridor remains a pertinent one in the 21st century. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is also pursuing the realization of the southern corridor. Following the Abraham Accords, Israel secured its position by adjusting its political relations with the Gulf countries. However, the presence of the Hamas organization in Gaza and Hezbollah’s threat to Israel on the northern border are among the factors impeding the realization of the corridor. Additionally, Iran’s role as a primary influencing factor in this process merits consideration.
This article will examine the potential political scenarios in the near future.
The process of rebuilding the political conjuncture of the Middle East is currently underway. Furthermore, the ongoing military operations in southern Lebanon and the assassination of Iranian generals in Syria could potentially give rise to new conflicts in the region. It seems plausible to suggest that Saudi Arabia is seeking to establish a role in the political administration of Lebanon. It is possible that he will be able to reach an agreement with Israel on this issue. Furthermore, the ongoing conflict in Syria, which has been relatively inactive for a period of time, may resume.
The political interests of the United States, Russia, Iran and Turkey converge in relation to the Syrian state, which represents a pivotal point in the broader context of the Middle East. Iran persists in its policy of issuing threats to Israel involving missile strikes, rather than engaging in overt military action. As the United States provides assistance to Israel, the rapprochement between Iran and Russia on the opposing front is becoming more pronounced. Furthermore, it is evident that China is extending support to Iran. Furthermore, the recent conflict between secular and religious forces within Israel has had a detrimental impact on the country’s political ideology. In order for the state of Israel to become a prominent and influential actor in the Middle East, it is essential that it also gives due consideration to the issue of ideology. This constitutes a significant element in the present case. Russia’s rapprochement with Iran represents a logical progression of its foreign policy. Both countries have expressed support for the Assad regime in Syria. Russia, which is seeking to form an alliance against the United States, would be well advised to exercise caution in its dealings with China. Given China’s extensive trade relations with the West and its situational approach to foreign policy, it is not a reliable ally of Russia. Iran, on the other hand, serves as a garrison state in the Middle East, utilising Shia ideology to its advantage. Currently, there are several potential threats from Israel against Iran, including the possibility of an attack on the country’s oil infrastructure, particularly oil refineries. Such a move would have a negative impact on Iran’s economy, but would in turn have a ripple effect that would have a positive effect on the global economy. However, Israel has the option of pursuing an alternative course of action. It is possible that an attack on infrastructure related to Iran’s nuclear program may occur.
It seems implausible that Israel will be able to completely defeat Hezbollah through the implementation of a ground operation in southern Lebanon. Additionally, Iranian Shiite militias from Syria assist Hezbollah in Lebanon. New operations could be conducted against the Iranian generals in Syria, a process which Mossad is well-versed in.
Furthermore, according to game theory in politics, what would be the outcome of a war between Israel and Iran.
| Israel Iran | to retaliate against Israel | avoiding direct escalation |
| Conduct a military operation | (-4,-4) | (3,-1) |
| Abstain from military operations | (-1,3) | (0,0) |
The following comments are offered in regard to the payoff:
(-4, -4): In response to the initiation of a military operation by Israel, Iran has taken action. Both parties are exposed to considerable risks and potential losses. In this instance, the losses incurred by both parties are significant.
(3, -1): Israel initiates military action, and Iran succeeds in preventing an escalation of the conflict. It is regarded as a tactical victory for Israel, given that Iran’s influence has been curtailed, albeit with relatively minimal losses on the Iranian side.
(-1, 3): Israel opts not to engage in military action, thereby allowing Iran to consolidate its position in Syria. In this instance, Israel incurs relatively minimal damage, whereas Iran achieves significant strategic gains.
(0, 0): Both parties demonstrate restraint and refrain from further escalation. The existing state of affairs is preserved, and neither party experiences a net gain or loss.
In the Middle East, Israel is engaged in a high-risk military conflict. In this process, Iran will primarily utilise proxy forces. One of the obstacles preventing Israel from establishing the Middle East-India corridor is the presence of the Houthis. One of the principal factors in any armed conflict is the availability of resources. The imposition of economic sanctions has had a significant impact on Iran. Furthermore, demonstrations against the existing government are frequently observed within Iran. It seems likely that the alliance between Russia and Iran will persist in this struggle. Nevertheless, it is unclear whether China will offer its full support. It will be a significant undertaking for Israel to influence the formation of a new system in the Middle East.
Analysis of the impact of these processes on Azerbaijan.
- Iran’s Influence and Proxy Forces
The influence of Iran in the region, exerted through its proxy forces, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shiite militias in Syria, constitutes a pivotal factor that shapes Azerbaijan’s strategic position. Azerbaijan, which shares a border with Iran, is directly affected by any tensions involving Iran’s proxy network. The significant Shiite population in Azerbaijan also presents a unique challenge, as Iran might attempt to leverage religious and ideological connections to influence internal politics or destabilise the region. Azerbaijan must navigate its stance carefully to avoid provoking Iran while simultaneously aligning with Israeli interests and its Western allies.
- Israeli-Azerbaijani Relations
The close ties between Israel and Azerbaijan, particularly in defense, technology, and intelligence cooperation, are significant in the broader context of countering Iranian influence. Azerbaijan’s strategic alliance with Israel allows it access to advanced military technologies and intelligence that could be crucial in safeguarding its national security against any Iranian threat.
As Israel intensifies its efforts to curb Iran’s influence, Azerbaijan’s strategic importance to Israel grows, not only as a military ally but also as a geopolitical partner that can serve as a base for monitoring Iran’s activities. This partnership might also extend to joint efforts in cyber defense and intelligence-sharing operations targeting Iran’s activities in the region.
- Russia and Iran’s Alliance
The alliance between Russia and Iran poses a complex challenge for Azerbaijan. Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus, particularly in relation to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, means that Azerbaijan has to carefully manage its relations with Moscow to avoid alienating a key regional power.
Azerbaijan’s ties with Israel and its stance against Iranian influence might complicate its relationship with Russia, especially if Moscow continues to support Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and the Assad regime. In this context, Azerbaijan’s strategy might involve a more nuanced diplomatic approach to maintain favorable ties with Russia while simultaneously advancing its strategic interests with Israel and Turkey.
- Energy and Economic Considerations
Azerbaijan’s role as a significant energy exporter to Europe positions it as a critical player in any scenario where regional energy dynamics are disrupted. If conflict between Israel and Iran disrupts Iranian oil and gas exports, Azerbaijan could step in to fill the gap, enhancing its importance as an alternative energy supplier to the West.
This opportunity could lead to greater investment in Azerbaijan’s energy infrastructure and increased political leverage within European markets. The strategic positioning of Azerbaijan in regional energy corridors, such as the Southern Gas Corridor, becomes even more vital as the West seeks to reduce dependence on Iranian and Russian energy sources.
- Impact of the Middle East-India Corridor
The proposed Middle East-India corridor, aimed at enhancing connectivity between the Middle East and South Asia, has significant implications for Azerbaijan. As a key link in any east-west trade route, Azerbaijan’s participation could be crucial for the corridor’s success. Stability in Lebanon, Syria, and the broader Middle East is essential for this project, but Hezbollah’s influence and Iran’s destabilizing actions could hinder progress.
For Azerbaijan, supporting the stability of this corridor aligns with its broader economic interests in expanding its role as a logistics hub in Eurasia. This could also provide Azerbaijan with a platform to strengthen its economic ties with Israel and India, bolstering its position in regional and global trade.
- Iranian Domestic Instability
The internal political unrest and economic struggles in Iran present both risks and opportunities for Azerbaijan. On one hand, a destabilized Iran might focus less on its regional ambitions, reducing immediate threats to Azerbaijan’s security. On the other hand, if Iran’s internal instability leads to aggressive foreign policy moves to unite domestic factions against external enemies, Azerbaijan could become a target of Iranian pressure.
For Azerbaijan, a weakened Iran could open up opportunities to enhance its influence in the region and foster closer relations with countries like Israel and Turkey, both of which view Iran as a strategic rival.
- Shifting Alliances in the Middle East
The evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, especially the potential rapprochement between Saudi Arabia, Gulf states, and Israel, offers Azerbaijan new avenues for diplomatic and economic engagement. As these states align more closely with Israeli interests, Azerbaijan could strengthen its role as a bridge between the Middle East and the South Caucasus.
This shifting alliance might also provide Azerbaijan with diplomatic leverage in dealing with Iran, as it could position itself as a regional mediator or a strategic partner to the Gulf states and Israel. The alignment with these nations could enhance Azerbaijan’s political standing and open up new economic opportunities, particularly in technology, defense, and energy sectors.
Conclusion: Azerbaijan’s Strategic Calculations
The complex interplay between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah in the Middle East undoubtedly affects Azerbaijan’s geopolitical strategy. Azerbaijan stands at a crossroads, balancing its relations with key powers like Israel, Russia, and Iran while pursuing its national interests in a turbulent regional environment. Its strategic partnerships, particularly with Israel and Turkey, offer Azerbaijan significant advantages, but also require a careful approach to avoid antagonizing Russia and Iran.
Azerbaijan’s ability to navigate these dynamics will be crucial in shaping its role as a stabilizing force in the South Caucasus and as a significant player in broader Middle Eastern geopolitics. As the situation evolves, Azerbaijan’s diplomatic agility and strategic alliances will determine its influence in the region’s future political and economic landscape.
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